T
he remarkable Hans Rosling has done it again. His documentary film titled "Don't Panic" is an excellent resource for our AP Human Geography course and essential information for understanding how the global demand for resources will change over the next century or so.

Historical Population Growth

  • global population in 10,000 bce (just as the first Agricultural Revolution was beginning) is estimated to have been about 10 million
  • by 1800 ce (just and the Industrial Revolution was beginning), global population had grown to 1 billion (this is a very small rate of change)
  • the mechanization of agriculture and improvements in healthcare meant a doubling of the global population to 2 billion by the 1920s, 3 billion by 1950s
  • by the 1990s it had doubled again (6 billion)
  • today there are over 7 billion people on Earth, but the rate is beginning to slow

Regional Population Growth

  • in the last 50 years, most population growth has been in Asia
  • Bangladesh, for example, population tripled from 50 to 150 million
  • the reason for the high growth rate was a fertility rate of 7 children per woman in the 1950s and 1960s
  • family size falls as education and healthcare.
  • since Bangladesh earned its Independence in 1972, fertility has fallen from 7 to 2.2
  • globally, in the last 50 years, average fertility has fallen from from 5 to 2.5

Life Expectancy

  • differences between rich and poor countries were much greater in 1963 than they are now
  • life expectancy in poor countries has generally improved from 35 to 50 years
  • the world is much less divided than it was 50 years ago (statistically speaking)
  • the demographic transition towards low birth and low death rates is taking place in most of the world's developing nations
  • global human population is expected to peak at about 11 billion by the end of this Century

Future Population Growth

  • family size is a function of child survival
  • before 1800, 4 out of 6 children died in childhood before adulthood
  • by 1960, however, 4 out of 5 were surviving—this led some to conclude that the world faced a 'population bomb'
  • today, however, on average, two adults have two children, and both survive
  • we have reached 'Peak Child'—there are 2 billion children in the world today
  • the number of children in the world is expected to remain near this plateau for the foreseeable future
  • however population will continue to grow (this is demographic momentum explained exceptionally well):
    • the world today has approximately 2 billion children (< 15 years old)
    • the world today has approximately 2 billion people aged 15-30
    • the world today has approximately 1 billion people aged 30-45
    • the world today has approximately 1 billion people aged 45-60
    • the world today has approximately 1 billion people aged 60+
    • TOTAL: 7 billion
  • BUT
    • the world in 15 years will have:
      • 2 billion children (< 15 years old)
      • 2 billion people aged 15-30
      • 2 billion people aged 30-45
      • 1 billion people aged 45-60
      • 1 billion people aged 60+
      • TOTAL: 8 billion
    • AND THEN
      • the world in 30 years will have:
        • 2 billion children (< 15 years old)
        • 2 billion people aged 15-30
        • 2 billion people aged 30-45
        • 2 billion people aged 45-60
        • 1 billion people aged 60-75
        • TOTAL: 9 billion
      • AND THEN
        • the world in 45 years will have:
          • 2 billion children (< 15 years old)
          • 2 billion people aged 15-30
          • 2 billion people aged 30-45
          • 2 billion people aged 45-60
          • 2 billion people aged 60-75
          • TOTAL: 10 billion
        • AND THEN
          • the world in 60 years will have:
            • 2 billion children (< 15 years old)
            • 2 billion people aged 15-30
            • 2 billion people aged 30-45
            • 2 billion people aged 45-60
            • 2 billion people aged 60-75
            • 1 billion people aged 75+
            • TOTAL: 11 billion
  • these are rounded numbers
  • the last cohort of people 75+ will result from continued increases in life expectancy

Population Distribution

  • as of 2010, the global population comprised: 1 billion in the Americas, 1 billion in Europe (including Russia), 1 billion in Africa, and 4 billion in Asia
  • the world's population 'PIN code' (a way to remember these statistics) is thus '1114' (7 billion)
  • by 2050 the world's population 'PIN code' will be '1125' (9 billion)
  • by 2100 the world's population 'PIN code' will be '1145' (11 billion)

Meeting Future Needs

  • the world faces huge challenges from this inevitable population growth
  • there are answers, for example, in Mozambique:
    • life has improved in recent decades for many people in Mozambique (one of the World's poorest countries) as modern hospitals and other infrastructure have been built (the capital is Mabuto)
    • even for the poorest of the poor (subsistence farmers in rural Mozambique, the long road toward technological development has begun—mobility is very important
      • for subsistence farmers, the first stage in a long progress of self-improvement will be saving up to buy a bicycle
      • the next step is a motorbike
      • the next step is an automobile
      • in between are things like washing machines and refrigerators
      • all of these things allow people to do less tedious work (chores) and use that time to do productive work that they can sell into an economy

The Dollar Yardstick

  • of 7 billion people alive today, the poorest 1 billion live on as little as 1 US dollar per day
  • the richest billion live on $100/day (or more)
  • in the middle, the vast majority are living on about $10/day
  • the difference between $1/day and $10/day is significant
  • the difference between $10/day and $50/day is significant

The Elimination of Poverty

  • the UN's target (Millennium Development Goals): eliminate extreme poverty within 20 years
  • it may be achievable BUT, there are two very large and interrelated uncertainties:
    • resource depletion
    • climate change
  • global inequities in the consumption of resources must be cured:
    • fossil fuels still provide 80% of all energy
    • today, 50% of fossil fuels is consumed by the richest 1 billion of population
    • 25% is used by the 2nd billion
    • 12.5% by the 3rd billion
    • this leaves more than half the global population consuming little more than 10%
  • those living in richest countries cannot expect to be able to deny developing nations the resources they need
  • in order to maintain their lifestyles, those living in richest countries, along with those living in developing countries must innovate or share
All the data used in the presentation is available at: http://www.open.edu/openlearn/dontpanic